Wednesday, February 24, 2010
It is not the end of the World...Yet!
Due to the uncapped year players now have to accrue 6 years of service to the franchise that drafted them instead of 4, before they become unrestricted free agents. Since most rookie contracts run 3-5 years this means that lots and lots of guys who would have been unrestricted free agents are now able to be tagged at a pretty affordable price. Thus, all the good young talent in the NFL is going to be locked down by their respective franchises for at least one more season. Not to say that there will not be a few key players available, Peppers (we already talked about this), Karlos Dansby, some other key players could move by trade, but even with an uncapped year no team will be able to just spend away and get tons of good talent because there is not tons of good talent available, there are a few guys available and lots of lower tier role players.
About now you are asking, well what if Jerry Jones with his deep pockets decided to go after ALL the big names? Well here is a little secret, the teams that finished in the top 8 in the league (participated in divisional round playoffs) can only take in an equal number of and contract values worth of free agents as they brought in. So essentially any team that won a playoff game can make lateral moves at best. Not conducive to getting over the hump. However if Daniel Snyder in Washington decided to go get all the free agents out their then…well he might actually have a playoff team.
Monday, February 22, 2010
2010 NFL Free Agents - Defensive Backs
Dre’ Bly (San Francisco 49ers), Nick Harper (Tennessee Titans), Walt Harris (San Francisco 49ers), Anthony Henry (Detroit Lions), Ken Lucas (Seattle Seahawks) Here are the 30 something’s that will be hitting the market. It’s a sad truth that youth is an almost essential part of being a good (even productive) corner in this league. Most of these guys have all outlived their prime, but if you just need some depth or a nickel or dime corner you might consider one of these guys. But don’t get delusions of glory that these cats are going to produce as they once did.
Leigh Bodden (New England Patriots) Here is a guy that was thought to be washed up when he left the lions, hence the one year deal with the Patriots, but he proved this year to be a quality corner. He is a quality number one and a shutdown number two. Don’t look for the Patriots to let him go unless he just want a ridiculous amount of money. Which could happen with the lack of depth in the free agent and draft class this year for corners.
Richard Marshall (Carolina Panthers) Marshall could play safety for the Steelers, hell maybe even linebacker. He is young, though, smart and only lacks a little bit of pure speed and agility to be elite. He is better suited to play in a 3-4 where talking is more of his responsibility, but Carolina can’t let go of a good young corner (too hard to come by). And if Peppers leaves (maybe if not), look for this team to think of switching defensive style anyway. Basically, this guy isn’t going anywhere!
Tramon Williams, Will Blackmon, (Green Bay Packers) Both are restricted free agents, but not trade bait. This comes don’t to one thing. Is Harrison and Woodson coming back. Both guys are still performing, but there comes a time when you got to hang it up. I don’t think Green Bay (or anyone else for that matter) is convinced about these two, but they may be around out of necessity. This could go either way, but it will provide some insight into where the Packers may go in the draft. Either way, don’t get too excited if your team gets one of these guys.
Dunta Robinson (Houston Texans) Can we say career suicide? This guy just had to shut up and wait to get paid. He was a great young corner that was going to get his, but after holding out, and performing ok at best, he just cost himself money and credibility. And if you haven’t noticed, selfish players always seem to fade away (Where have TO and Chad been the last two seasons?).
Carlos Rogers (Washington Redskins) This guy was in the same boat as Robison mentioned above, but showed what can happen if you get your act together. Here was one of the most talented corners I have ever seen, but his ego and pocket book got to him. Got sent to a poor system, and faded away. Since then, Rogers has grown up, got into a good system, and is back to his former self. In fact, I would say he is back to elite. If he wasn’t playing on a bad team, I think more people would have taken notice. I don’t see Snyder letting him go with an excuse to write blank checks with no cap this year. Washington will keep him. Hats off to you thought Rogers.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
2010 NFL Free Agent - Offensive Linemen
Chad Clifton (Green Bay Packers) His play waned last year, but in my opinion it was not due to his abilities, but instead due to injury and a lack of help on the inside. It is no great secret that Green Bay could not protect against the blitz last year and will probably look to reconcile that in a deep offensive line draft class. Green bay could go either way here; it kind of depends on how much Chad wants. If not, look for a team like San Diego, who could use a good run blocker, to take him.
Logan Mankins (New England Patriots) Here is probably the best offensive linemen in this class. Too bad the Patriots won’t let him go. Historically New England does not like to pay big money for players, but when it comes to protecting Tom Brady, spare no expense! But make no mistake, there are plenty of teams that would give up the picks to get this guy. The 49eres or the Seahawks would love to have this guy and have the picks. Especially since they are both likely to take quarterbacks on the first day of the draft this year.
Marcus McNeill (San Diego Chargers) Here is the problem with McNeil, INCONSISTANCY! This guy is young, strong and talented, but he just doesn’t produce all the time. That is a big problem at left tackle when you are protecting a franchise quarterback. I think this one could also come down to money. The Chargers have to worry about resigning Sproles and Jackson, and in an uncapped year, they know their value in the market and so does McNeil. You can tag them all, so you have to make a decision, and I don’t see someone spending picks on McNeil with a deep draft class. This could be a hold out situation.
Jared Gaither (Baltimore Ravens) There is no way the Ravens let this guy go. He will either get his contact or a tag. Sorry AFC North. Good Luck with that.
Willie Colon (Pittsburgh Steelers) Look for Colon to get a contract. He isn’t a great player and has been a disappointment, but right bow Pittsburg just doesn’t have options. Pittsburg will likely draft a linemen day one this year, but they have more than one hole to fill up front. For now, Colon will have to do at right tackle. Don’t get me wrong, he is a good run blocker, but let just say it’s a good thing been is durable.
Jammal Brown, Jahri Evans, Jermon Bushrod (New Orleans Saints) The Saints have three guys that are due new contracts, and after a Super Bowl season, they are all going to want paid and there is just no way to afford all of them. Look for Evans and Bushrod to get paid, but Brown will be the odd man out. After his injury last season, Bushrod came in and did at least as good as job, if not better, than brown, for less money. However, that does put Brown on the Market or make him trade bait for New Orleans at the 32nd overall pick. Brown is a great player, I just don’t see it being worth it to New Orleans to keep both of them. Brown could end up on any number of teams if he is released, but if the Saints want draft picks compensation, it will narrow quickly. This will be one to watch if your team needs a lineman.
Donald Penn (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Is one of the most underrated left tackles in the league. He isn’t going anywhere. Especially considering the chance that Tampa take a QB early in this draft.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
2010 NFL Free Agents - Running Back
Ronnie Brown (Miami Dolphins) here is one of the most intriguing free agent of the season. Brown is an unrestricted free agent, so that means he is free game. When this guy is on the field he has proven to be a game changer and maybe even one of the best back in the league. The only problem is that he isn’t always on the field. Two season ending injuries are going to hurt browns chances to get paid. And it is going to give Miami pause to resign him. I would love this guy on my team, but not for more than 4 or 5 million with his injury history. This could be a steal for with some money and in need of a back. I could see Arizona or Kansas City taking as a potential home
Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints) Don’t look for Thomas to hit the market. This guy will get signed soon! He is too good and too young and too versatile for New Orleans to let him get away. And the presents of a good back allows them to keep bush in a spot roll which works well for them. There probably wont be a lot of offers made anyway with his lack of experience. I know it’s going to be hard for them to afford, but with the cap gone its going to happen even though they have not historically been big money spenders. Sorry guys!
Darren Sproles (San Diego Chargers) in my opinion this guy is the best value at this position this year. He is a speed, agility and power back all in one, and after a down year for him (due to the Chargers run game, not Sproles) he is going to have a moderate tag. Look for San Diego to try and retain him, maybe even tag the guy. But if they don’t, he is going to have a starting job and a 7 million dollar a year contract from someone. He might even anyway if scouting reports are any indication someone will give up some picks for this guy.
Le’Ron McClain (Baltimore Ravens) NOT GOING ANYWHERE! This guy maybe the most exciting fullback since Mike Allstot. There is no way the Ravens let him go. Especially with the production Ray Rice has with him on the field. But this may free up McGhee for a cut.
Willie Parker (Pittsburgh Steelers) Willie is in more than a slump. He has been less than productive since his knee injury a couple of years ago. He still has the wheels, but doesn’t seem to have the burst. Pittsburg has already made the change to Mendenhall as a starter and they don’t like to pay guys who aren’t producing. Parker should be in another jersey next year. Look for him to end up behind a power back somewhere like the Jets or Giants, maybe even the Redskins.
LenDale White (Tennessee Titans) can we say complimentary back only. Look for one of those teams that lost one of the above mentioned backs to take a look at white. He is a fantastic compliment to any system, but when you got Chris Johnson, you don’t need a Cadillac backing up; you just need something that runs. You can get that with a 6th round pick for no money so why resign the guy unless its really cheap. And I don’t look for White to want to sit.
Kevin Faulk (New England Patriots) the best nobody in the league for the last several decade. The guy just goes out and gets it done in every situation. He doesn’t turn the ball over, can do it all, and is a leader. I would look for a team like Minnesota, who has a great back but can’t afford to lose the running game due to injury if Farve retiers, to look for another back like this to replace Taylor. The other scenario is that maybe someone is planning on drafting early and needs some insurance and veteran guidance. This guy is a hall of fame backup if they had those.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
2010 Free Agents - Wide Recivers
Terrell Owens (Buffalo Bills) should not be back in Buffalo for a second season. No because he doesn’t still have “IT” (or at least most of it), but because there is no reason to pay a player close to 10 million dollars a year in that situation. No QB, mediocre Defense. I applaud buffalo for taking the chance last year, and attempting to get better, but you guys just don’t have the infrastructure. Sorry. But with no salary cap this year, look for Owens to get a nice (short) contract. My money is that Dan Snider (Redskins) or the Bears jump at this chance if they can’t get anyone younger.
Brandon Marshall (Denver Broncos) is the big prize here, he has had some of the best and most consistent numbers over the last few years, and he is young. And despite the off the field trouble, he manages not to get into too much trouble. Someone is going to take a chance on this guy, he is just too good. But who? He is a restricted free agent meaning that it will cost a first and third round pick to get him away from Denver. The question becomes is he worth the trouble? And do we want to pay anymore first round picks after snagging two for Jay Cutler. It is hard to say, but look for him to end up somewhere about 2 days before the draft.
Braylon Edwards (New York Jets) this guy has not produced in two years, and has really only manage one good (Great) season during his career. He is going to get paid because there is no cap and people go crazy during free agency (hence Bennard Berrian getting 8 mill from the Vikings a few years ago). However, the question is wheatear the Jets can unload him. Once again, only because there is no cap, I’m going to say yes, but this is not something your team should be happy about. Look for Dallas to potentially get involved. Especially if they can’t get Austin back.
Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys) young, explosive, consistent, fast, great hands, crisp routes… Jerry paid TO 10 million a year and gave up a first rounder for Williams and didn’t get all that. There is no way this guy gets out of Dallas. He might as well not be a free agent, so forget it.
Others to consider:
Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers) Steve Breaston (Arizona Cardinals), Chris Chambers (Kansas City Chiefs), Derrick Mason (Baltimore Ravens) here are the player that you should really be excited about. Here are the players that your team could actually end up with if your not Dallas, Washington or New York, and for a good price too!!! These are the kinds of players that show up each week, you have no problems with, don’t ask for that much money, and always produce. Free agency is not to build a team, its to compliment it, and here are the best values.
Notable: Look for Chad Johnson and Anquan Boldin to be on the trading block before draft day.
By: Matthew Walden
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Free Agent 2010 - Quarterbacks
Kyle Orton (Denver Broncos) I know this wont make Bronco’s fans happy, but he is your guy. At least for another year or so. Orton had a quietly great year, and has developed into a great game manager. He was really consistent last year, and that’s what the new Coach is looking for. Don’t forget that the Broncos have the Bears first round pick and a shot to get one of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft. A guy for the future. That guy is going to need time to mature and a quality mentor. That spells new contract for Orton. A how could Orton complain; he is on a quality team with a chance to win now.
Chad Pennington (Miami Dolphins) is an unrestricted free agent this year, and after his subpar year and injury issues, look for Miami to let him go and hand the reigns over to one of their younger options. And as far as Chad’s future, don’t look for him to put up big numbers again unless the guy he is backing up goes down with injury. Chad is now a life time backup.
Daunte Culpepper, (Detroit Lions) & Charlie Batch (Pittsburgh Steelers) are two quality free agent backups. Especially Batch, but I’m not sure that Pittsburg can afford to keep him around. Look for one of these two guys to end up in Arizona with Matt Linhert and who knows about the other. But if you get them, it should be piece of mind that your season is over just because your starter went down.
Jason Campbell, (Washington Redskins) & Tarvaris Jackson (Minnesota Vikings) Good bye! Both teams have seen enough. In fact I think every team in the league has seen enough. Fine, someone will give them a job as a snap holder, but that’s about it.
*Also, maybe look for Troy Smith (Baltimore Raves) to get a gig as a Wild Cat QB.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Say it isnt so Bill!!!
I look at the statistics and at the gameplay equally. Statistically, Peyton Manning did not get sacked; he did not even get hit often. The Saints decided to battle Peyton from a coverage standpoint which is surprising considering he usually leads his team effortlessly downfield when all he has to do is recognize the coverage, Favre would have given his game check to have seen as little pass-rush attention as Manning did, so that is a win for the Offensive Line. Next up run blocking: during the regular season the colts averaged a bottom dwelling 3.5 yards per attempt, in the Superbowl that average rose to 5.2 yards per carry, one carry of which included a goal to go touchdown run by Joseph Addai. Another win by the Offensive line by just about any standard. I understand Polian being a smidge frustrated, but of all the places to dish out the blame, the Colts Offensive line was not the place.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Here We Go Again!
What? You thought I was talking about Mother Nature initiating spring? No, that was a direct reference to Favre switching teams again. I mean c’mon, three franchises in 3 years, he was supposed to be the God-sent to all of them, and his retirement is constantly discussed yet we all know better than to think he will actually stop playing football. The reason I watch sports networks of any kinds is to know and learn more about sports. Perhaps some of you are laughing at my statement that seems exceptionally obvious, however, watch ESPN, or even NFL Network (albeit to a lesser degree) this offseason, all Brett Favre, all the time, doesn’t really matter what the specific idea is, just that we get some good ol’ fashioned drama. I did not turn on Desperate Housewives, I do not want drama, I want sports, sports that are specifically free of drama.
Each person has a certain ‘drama bank’ if you will, that they can pull from, the size of which is dependent on how much you have done in the league. For instance, Peyton Manning has a huge bank, uses very little. Brady, dates a supermodel, uses a fair amount of his drama bank, Favre, and I recognize this is the medias fault and not his (mostly) is in a massive Federal government style budget deficit in his off field drama bank.
All I want this offseason is to not here about Brett Favre, that is it. If I had a genie in a bottle, that would be wish number 1, no Brett Favre offseason drama, ever again. But, as with all things that are a part of the very fabric of the universe, this could not and will not happen, woe is….well, all true sports fans.
By: Matthew Walden & Aaron Tull
Thursday, February 11, 2010
You Can Have Him!
So here it is people, a guy who has his head so far up his bum that he cannot see fit to sign a record deal even after a slump season is no player for me. If I am running an NFL scouting office, I give Peppers a grade ‘I’, as in IDIOT. I know some NFL players are brighter than others, but this guy (and his agent, quite likely) is dumber than a bag of hammers. He would not know a good deal if it smacked him in the face, and a good deal will come March 5th in spite of his ignorance.
By: Matthew Walden & Aaron Tull
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Super Thoughts
Furthermore, I contend that the big nail-in-the-coffin interception-return-for-touchdown by Tracy Porter was not nearly so much a great defensive play, more so a situational hazard. So, if you are still reading this it is probably only to punch a hole in my theory, but here goes it: Watch the play in slow motion: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/09000d5d81646e9e/SB-XLIV-Can-t-Miss-Play-Porter-seals-it .
The first thing one should notice is that the Saints are in man coverage with one safety over the top. Now focus on the slot receiver to the playside, Austin Collie, and observe how fast he makes his cut for the slant pattern. Then rewind and watch Reggie Wayne. Absolutely night and day, no comparison really. Wayne is supposed to do a slant pattern just like Collie, but instead does a little shake n bake to try to waver Tracy Porter’s man coverage. No dice Reggie. Manning throws the ball where Wayne should have been, but instead hits Tracy Porter in the gut. I played football for a few years and I got a couple interceptions in my day, but none came any easier than Tracy Porters game winner. Seriously, look at where Porter is standing when the ball is thrown, the ball literally would have given him a charlie-horse on the leg if he had not caught it. Not taking anything away from porter, he did his job, but let’s not create another Larry Brown episode OK people?
By: Matthew Walden & Aaron Tull
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Wayne not Manning
Peyton Manning is getting a lot of flak for his late game interception during Sundays Super Bowl that all but sealed the victory for the New Orleans Saints. Many are saying that he lost them the game on one pass. Peyton has even taken the blame for the Mistake that was made, and that is the sign of a great leader. However, that play was not Peyton’s fault, nor was it the fault of the Indianapolis Colts team. The Colts were the better team in this game, and I thought out played the Saints even without their second best player (Dwight Freeney).
So who does the blame fall on? As much as I hate to say it, Reggie Wayne! He is one of the most underrated players of all time, and a staple of the Colts dynasty. His play is part of what has made the Colts so great for so long. All the same, he is the reason for the late game interception, not Manning. If you review the play, Wayne was on an option route. It was Wayne’s responsibility to recognize the coverage (Tracy Porter) playing off the receiver heads up. That reads as a slant route. Instead, Wayne ran a flag route. When a quarterback throws the ball, he does it before the receiver makes a move so the coverage can’t jump that pass (get in front of the receiver and intercept the ball). If Wayne had cut under the cornerback on a slant like he was supposed to, it would have been an easy pass and catch for 12 yards, instead the ball went straight into Porter hands.
To top it all off, Wayne had a relatively easy pass to tie the game with a couple of minutes left to tie the game. This would have at least given the Colts a chance to get an onside kick and the ball back. And we all know that if Peyton has the ball in his hands, there is a good chance he is going to score, especially since the saints had not stopped him all day.
I love ya Reggie, and I would still want you on my team any day. I feel for you, but to those of you blaming Manning, it wasn’t his fault. That was ALL on Wayne.
By: Matthew Walden
Monday, February 8, 2010
Best Worst Call in Super Bowl History
But not that I got that out of the way and can’t be called a Who Dat hatter, let me just say that I am already sick of hearing about Sean Peyton and his gutsy calls. I am disturbed at the fact that he is being applauded for his coaching triumphs. I cannot believe that there are so many sports announcers, columnist, bloggers and analysts out there singing his praises. Are you all stupid? Sorry for the word usage there, I know it’s a little elementary and strong, but no less appropriate.
I like Sean Peyton. I think he is a great coach, but that was the worst called Super Bowl I have ever seen. Yeah, ok I know it is easy to sit here after the win and it looks genius, we all know without a doubt that those fair weather fans in New Orleans would have had his head if they had lost the game.
Those calls were ridiculous. You are down 10 – 3 (1 Touch Down) and you go for it on fourth and short in the 2nd quarter? That is the hardest four yards in football. Then, not only do you go for it, but you take your bruiser running back to the outside against possibly the fastest defense in football. Then you don’t learn your lesson and try it again. That is plain and simply idiotic, not heroic. I though Drew said after the game that Peyton trust them, then why did he feel as though he had to score right then.
Second worst call of the game was the end around in the second quarter. One, the Colts Defense is too fast if you hadn’t noticed. Second, the defense has to be cheating for that to work. I mean even Madden players know that, how come an NFL coach doesn’t?
And for the “Best Worst Call in Super Bowl History”, the onside kick. You were only down four points! And that is after you managed to get three before the half ended after your last mistake! Don’t get me wrong, it was beautifully executed and obviously practiced. If it weren’t for the other awful calls that Sean Peyton had already made, I probably would have just called it gutsy, but he was making every rookie coach mistake he could.
The saints won that game, and even deservingly so, but NO THANKS TO SEAN PEYTON.
By: Matthew Walden
Saturday, February 6, 2010
How you can help the NFL
Football has not only replaced baseball and basketball as this countries favorite pass time, it has dominated it. It has made the NFL untouchable!... Or has it?
This week, in Miami during one of this countless Super Bowl week interview, Roger Goodell address concerns over the most important issue to face the NFL since its creation. A concern that most fans have no idea exists, or how devastating it could be for their game. That is the concer over the collective bargaining agreement… The what you say?
The collective bargaining agreement is essentially a contract between National Football Leagues Player Association (the players) and owner (of the teams) on and array of issues (retirement, salary, free agency, and so on) that governs the actions of said participants. What fans don’t realize is without this contract, there can be no season.
It’s like, have you ever seen a strike or a lock out at a local business or labor plant. You hear about people losing their job, picketing, and negotiations. I am sure most of you have even had someone affected by a strike. Well that’s just it. That is what is going to happen if a contact isn’t reached soon. There will essentially be no 2011 NFL season because both sides cant come to an agreement.
Now I know what a lot of you are thinking right now. Greedy players and owner!!! But it’s not that easy. There is more than money at stake here. There is the issue of injuries like concussions that concern players long term health, and what the NFL is going to do to protect them. There is the issue over entire franchises losing their teams. For instance, the Jaguars are in jeopardy of losing their team, and with it, the local community will lose much more.
There is a lot more at stake here than just money. But if you are a “True Football Fan”, you will find out more, and do what you can to make sure there is a 2011 NFL season. Find a petition, or write you teams. Get your voice out. Lets save the game we love so much!
By: Matthew Walden
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Peyton v.s. Tom and Super Bowl, and Super Bowl XLIV
The arguments have been fierce and competitive, but Brady fans have always had one trump card that has been able to hush the Manning fans, and that is the three Super Bowl rings. My question is, does that all change if Peyton takes home his second on Sunday?
Peyton obviously has the statistical advantage. He has 50,000 passing yards to Brady’s 30,000. Peyton has 366 touchdown passes to Tom’s 219. Manning’s career passer rating wins by a margin of 95.2 to 93.3 (I do not believe passer rating is a good indication of quarterback quality; see my article Best Quarter Back Ever at http://fortruefootballfans.webs.com/.
However, Tom has three Super Bowl Victories and four appearances to Peyton’s one victory and one appearance. We all know that is the key stat for most of these conversations. It is the only reason Terry Bradshaw is even mentioned, and what keeps Dan Marino out of the argument.
So, does this close the discussion and serve to solidify Peyton as the winner? The answer is no… Peyton was already the winner.
We all respect Brady, but the truth is, it only took Brett Favre incredible numbers and one Super Bowl victory with a second appearance to be mentioned. Even though Tom has good numbers (including some amazing single season records), he just doesn’t touch Manning.
By: Matthew Walden
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Measuring the Loss of Freeney
The National Football League has now become a passing league for those of you who have not been watching for the last decade. Passes account for around 60 percent of the plays run in an average NFL season. And for some teams, like the Colts and Saints, it can be much more. That means that a pass rush is essential to defending against teams like these. So how much impact can a one guy, like Freeney, have on a team’s defense? Tremendous!
Example: Take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2007 Jared Allen was still a Chief. There defense, although not stellar, was ranked between 10th and 15th in the league (depending on what stats you include). Every other player on defense consistent, they fell to last or second to last (depending).
Not probative enough, then take a look at this year’s Pro Bowl which did not allow defensive pass rushing. The score was 34 to 41 and the net passing yards were 417 and 418 respectively. Those are pretty ridiculous numbers. And keep in mind that they were able to do this with players they are not use to playing with (no chemistry), out of a limited playbook (few plays and formations), and against the best defensive players in the league.
That is the kind of difference a player and a pass rush can have. So how big is the loss of Freeney to the Colts chances at a Super Bowl? Monumental!
By: Matthew Walden
Monday, February 1, 2010
So, for Storylines we have...What?
By: Matthew Walden & Aaron Tull