Seriously NFL.com?

Ok, so I know that I tend to be hard on ESPN and Sports illustrated often. I give their entire main stream media analyst a lot of criticism for boring stories, wrong information, armature analysis and generally having no insight. I am always criticizing then for irrelevant article and obvious reports. I know that a lot of you are probably thinking “I am just another complainer” or “what makes this guy think he is such a great analyst?”

Let me respond. First, I don’t think that I am the greatest football writer, just that I am better than these jokers, sitting at home with only my laptop. I am not trying to convince you to read this, my goal is to simply make you aware of better/alternative information and perspectives from which to gain more knowledge about the NFL.

Second, I have now provided some proof thanks to the staff of the Associated Press and the National Football league. In an article posted on the Wire Report of NFL.com, “Tebow struggles in Senior Bowl, 'open' to work on fundamentals” the writers discuss Tim Tebow’s performance at the 2010 Senior Bowl. The article labels Tebow’s performance as “struggling”. They list his stats for the game as 8 of 12 passing for 50 yards, no TDs no Ints, and imply a lack luster showing from the draft prospect.

Later when addressing the performance of Cincinnati’s Tony Pike, Once of Tebow’s competitors at the Quarterback position in the 2010 NFL Draft, the article stated his performance as “solid”. His stats we also listed, 5 of 12 for 45 yards, no TDs no Ints.

Am I missing something, or were Tebow’s numbers better/same?

By: Matthew Walden

True Heros

Earlier this week Kurt Warner of the Arizona Cardinals (more famously of the St. Louis Rams), retired from the game of football after a twelve year career. I was deeply saddened by the news. My childish hope was to see the legend step back on the field for one last battle. But alas, he will ride off into the Arizona sun set never to be seen again. And maybe that is my fear. I am sure I am not the first to say it, but the National Football League lost one of the greatest players it ever had in Kurt Warner. In his short career, Kurt Warner went to three Super Bowls (more than Manning or Young). He holds the top three spots for yardage in a playoff game (More than Elway or Brady). Warner tied the great Joe Montana for most post touch downs in a single post season. He tied Dan Marion with at the fastest quarterback to reach 30,000 yards. He is one of only two quarterbacks to ever make the Super Bowl with two teams. He has the second highest passer rating in the post season. He has the second highest passing yards per game. Warner holds two MVP awards and a Super Bowl ring. He did more than any quarterback in the history of the game in such a short amount of time. And that may have been the least of his accomplishment. Most impressive still, he was you and me. Everyone knows the story (or should). He was the grocery store clerk turned NFL champion. He was the American dream, showing that anyone is capable of great things who believes in themselves and works hard. He was the player every kid wanted to be out on the playground, because he was them. He was an ordinary champion accomplishing extraordinary things.

By: Matthew Walden

Pro Bowl Proclaimed

Ok, like many of you, I can’t get enough football. I love free agency. I love the Combine. I love the draft. I love training camp. I love the regular season. I love the post season. I love playing Madden. I love fantasy football. (Please note that I did not say I love the pre season. An article to follow on the subject.) But as much as I love the game, as much as I love everything about it and can’t get enough, I can’t ever seem to bring myself to watch a Pro Bowl. I am sure most of you know what I am talking about. And I hate that! I want to like the Pro Bowl! However, the NFL has done its best to make it a meaningless game. And I’m not talking about the critics that say fan votes shouldn’t count because too many times deserving players get left out because of pure volume of Dallas and New York fans. Fans are what make this game great. I am talking about the venue and the rules.

First off, Hawaii? What about the rest of the fans that would love to see all of their favorite players in person. We might be able to afford a ticket, but a plane trip to Hawaii too? Don’t think so! So hats off to the Commissioner this year for bringing the game back to American soil (yes I know Hawaii is a State, but come on, it’s funny and we were all thinking it.

Next, the rules. Can’t hit quarterbacks. Can’t blitz. Can’t use trick plays. Can’t run any type of Defense or offense you want. ??? Make it a real game or make it a fund game. The NFL has taken both those away, and with it any reason for watching.

Then there is the problem of the game having no meaning. Look at what Baseball has done giving home field to in the World Series to the winning league. That is meaning. And who doesn’t like seeing Kobe and LaBron going at it in the NBA All Star Game. It’s just more fun this way.

But, once again, congrats to the commish for correcting the venue and getting it into a time slot when you average fan still cares about the game. Great job!

By: Matthew Walden

Imperfect Saints

Let me start by saying congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for their advancement to the 2010 National Football League World Championship. Their efforts all season have been nothing short of amazing. The transition they made from the less than inspiring performance of the last couple years into a true juggernaut was testament to the incredible players and coaches there. Lead by maybe the rightful Most Valuable Player Drew Breeze, and a next generation Dick Vermeil in Shaun Peyton, I felt honored to watch you all season. But with that being said, allow me to also say that the best team is not advancing to the Super Bowl in Miami. I know a lot of people would argue with me about the two points that I am going to make, but I think it gives justification to a point I made in an earlier blog I wrote “Super Bust”.

The first point I will make is that it took five turn overs by the Minnesota Viking, including two fumbles they manage to recover, and overtime to win a playoff game at home. I know most of you are screaming that “that’s part of football, not turning the ball over”, and I agree. But if you have a plus four turnover margin at home in the playoffs, you should crush the other team. Not narrowly win in overtime. But I see your point.

Next, I will cite the atrocious calls in during the last drive. It took a questionable spot and a phantom pass interference call, to name two, just to get the Saints into scoring position. How is that possible considering the above mentioned turnover ratio. That’s two merciless in one game.
And my last point. As mentioned above (“Super Bust”), my article addresses the issue of the NFL being the only major group sport in which there is a single game played to decide the champion, not a series. If the same game was played ten more times, the Viking win. It took all the saints had, and some help, to beat the worst the Vikings had to offer.

By: Matthew Walden

Super Bowl Over Under

As the hype and analysis of the Super-Bowl heats up speculation will begin about who will do what and how and why. Predictions will emerge and ideas will be thrown about, and while there are no guarantees in life much less the NFL, I am going to make a bold unprecedented prophecy: Defense will NOT win this championship. I am a believer more than most in: play tough defense, 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offense, old school strategy. Maybe my memo to Sean Peyton and Jim Caldwell got lost in the shuffle somewhere. These teams best defense is their offense, period. Neither team finished in the top half of the NFL in total defense this year, neither managed to overwhelm opponents with sacks. If you dig, you will see that the colts were second in defensive 3rd down conversions and that the saints were 3rd in turnover margin. While I will never undermine the value of those statistics, the fact that they are not accompanied by other indicators of defensive prowess says to me that these defenses are specialized, not dominant, and good not super. Let me be clear (Damn you Obama for ruining that phrase for the rest of time), these defenses have playmakers and at some point their presence will be felt, but unlike Super-Bowl XLIII when the faltering of Pittsburgh’s defense came as a surprise, this year people will be surprised when the Defenses make a stop. Quote me fellow NFL devotees, the over/under currently stands at 56.5, I am breaking my piggy bank and mortgaging the…well I live in an apartment, but I am betting all I have on the over.

Total D PYPG RYPG Turnover rank Sacks 3rd down % PPG
Indy 18 14 24 t-13 16 2 8
NO 25 26 21 3 13 19 20

By: Aaron Tull & Matthew Walden

Less than Expected

I started this blog as an assignment for a class. I didn’t really think it was going to be that much work. I love football. All me and my boys do is talk football. I just have to write some of these pearls of wisdom down right? Get on the old HP a few times a week and spew out a plethora of football knowledge. And really that is all it takes. I have been openly critical of almost every major sports analyst and network. I have bastardized their work as elementary and un insightful. Save Carucci, Jaws, Sporting New, and a few select others, I still believe that to be true. However, I more than underestimated the amount of work that it takes, not only to compose a sports article or blog, but to create an insightful piece of writing. Something that goes a little deeper than scores and big plays. Something that goes further than simple analysis. I figured a few minutes a day, and two or three hundred words later, I would have a master piece of fact and figures to woo all, and put those professionals to shame. The sad truth is that I do already rival most of them. But that’s like saying my garbage is better than your garbage. It takes real dedication, insight, knowledge, understanding, time, hard work, research and much more to write a truly good blog. I wish that wasn’t the case. I have to write one of there about every day. I could spend the next month just researching and talking about the sham MVP award. But instead I have to write mediocre article to fulfill a requirement for class. No I am not blaming the professor, I just shouldn’t have taken on such an overwhelming task of becoming the next great sport analyst. So, in short, I apologize for less that inspiring work, but I hope you can take my ideas and expand them.

By: Matthew Walden

Biggest Keys to the AFC NFC Champ Games

I have worked through the numbers, listened to the talking heads and made myself aware of all the information about this weekend’s games. With so many variable, factors and opinions, I found myself asking the question. If I had to pin these two games down to one of those elements, what would it be? Now I know it is going to take more than one ingredient to achieve success, and make it to the big one, but if I had to narrow its importance to one, this is what it would be it.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

Let’s not kid our self. The Jets are the underdog her. I love them too. I know they beat the Colts once this year already. They have already upset one good team and one great team in this post season, both on the road. However, they are still the underdog here and deservingly so. So key one. Forget that you played once this year. So often in this league you see a team beat another and forget to make adjustments for the next meeting. Thank you Baltimore and New England. New England though they were going to go out, through another half dozen passes to the rock (Wes Welker), holding off the pressure, and focus on cutting down Flaco’s big arm with a lot of deep coverage. It worked before didn’t it? What happened? Adjustments for Baltimore and non for New England! Flaco didn’t even need to play they run the ball so much and effectively against that deep cover. And without Welker, Tom Brady looked like a seventh round pick against the pressure…Ooops. The best thing either of these teams can do, and the key to winning this game is forgetting they even played this season. So much changes from week to week with injuries, venue, officiating crews and so on. Play your game!!!

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

I truly believe these two team are superior to the Colts and Jets, and that neither has a real advantage on the field. They are like two run away locomotives heading towards each other on a track. Sure their offensive and defensive systems differ, but show me an “exploitable weakness” on either team. Some would argue the right side of the Vikings offensive line. But that is often negated with a great running back and aware quarterback. Does AP and Favre fit that description? And some would say constancy in the secondary by New Orleans. That is often negated if you can stop the run and drop more back in coverage. Do the Saints who were 5th against the run fit that? I know you want to argue, but its AP. And Favre and Rice are too good to be stopped no matter how many they drop back. Or maybe you want tell me about how poorly Minnesota has run the ball lately. Look, the sun isn’t perfectly round and is full of blemishes in the form of sun spots and solar flare, but would you want to get in its way? Didn’t think so. So what is this games key? I say this, being the last of these two Juggernauts to through a punch, offensively or defensively. It will come down to the last big play of the game. That is the key.

By: Matthew Walden

Peyton Mannning is Good? Who knew

I have marginalized ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and other main stream football media outlets who cater to the ordinary “fan”. They spew out a plethora of irrelevant football news and superficial information in order to entertain the masses. Now I understand that large businesses and organizations like these mentioned cant market to you and me. They can’t build their magazines, shows and commentary around the 2% of National Football League fans that actually understand the game. They can’t give the depth of analysis that goes beyond Peyton Manning is good. The masses are too happy to be Sunday morning fans from September through January. And I am not even knocking those fans. But for those of us that are looking beyond the first round of the draft. For those of us that want to understand how a change of offensive scheme in our division affects our team or league. For those of us who want to know who is really the “best” and not just the most publicized, thank God for good bloggers. No, I am not claiming to be one of these true fan treasure chest, I am just taking a moment to point out a couple of well keep secretes to those of you like me. I currently found a collection of fantastic blogs that I have linked in My Blog List. It is an individual blog for each NFL team provides some great detail about all aspects of your team and others. I encourage you to take a look if you are a True Football Fan.

P.S. No offense intended to the fine institution of Sporting New, your dedication to insightful football knowledge should serve as an example to the rest of mainstream sports media. Thank you!
By: Matthew Walden

Super Bust

Let me start by saying that I love the Super Bowl as much as the next guy. There is nothing like seeing nothing but football on ESPN for two weeks. Granted, I get tired of hearing about things like Tony Romo’s girl friend or Janet Jacksons nipple, but at least it isn’t irrelevant January baseball news or a story about Tiger Woods troubles. I love sitting around with the boys with too much beer and not enough chips. I enjoy talking crap about the teams and playing it out on the latest Madden. I have a great talking about the commercial during breaks, and telling stories about how my team is going to be there next year. However, as far as the game is concerned, I have to say that I think it is the most over rated sporting event in the world. I know this sounds blasphemous to my fellow football fanatics, but here is why.

First, it is a one game series. This is the only major sport (non individual), besides soccer that does have a multiple games series to decide the championship (no offense NASCAR fans). Now I know that is part of why we all love the game. The whole any given Sunday cliché. And yes, I know, it doesn’t seem feasible to have a multiple game championship. But let’s be honest. There is no way the New Your Giants win that game (Super Bowl 42) 2 times out 20, let alone 3. Any given Sunday is great during a 16 game season to see who gets into the playoffs. That is more than enough time to prove your worthiness, but to decide a champion that way is a discredit to the game. We have all seen it before, one bad call or just a single bad performance and that’s it. I know that’s part of the game, but tell me you wouldn’t have love to see Arizona last year or Tennessee in 2000 get another shot at it? My argument is not that this is a possible scenario or that the NFL should even consider it, but just that a champions can even have a bad day or unbelievable circumstances. Look at this year’s NCAA Football National championship. Who wouldn’t want to see what Texas could have done with Colt McCoy in there?

Second, is the two week break between the AFC NFC Champ games and the Super Bowl. Two weeks is unnecessary, and simply a marketing strategy for the National Football League to make more money. Fine, I know it is a huge event, and that accommodations and preparations has to be done, but they have been preparing all year for this. You give teams two weeks off. Distract them from the task at hand with; travel, media conferences, hype, public relations responsibilities, and the list goes on, and then ask them to be ready to play the most important game of their careers. This is an enormous disservice to the fans, coaches and the players.

This leads me to my third point. GET RID OF THE HALF HOUR HALF TIME SHOW!!! I mean who watches it any way. This may not be the most scientific study ever done, but I have asked everyone I have talk to in the last couple days who watches the half time show, and two people out of at least 50 said yes? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t turn the TV because I want to see the commercial, but I would be happier with 30 minutes of hilarious advertisement. That is one way for the NFL to recoup some of the losses from shortening the time between the AFC NFC champ games and the Super Bowl to one week. The ads were down to a mere 3 million dollars for 30 seconds this year. That is 180 million dollars total for half time. Not to mention the savings from hiring some old white guys to sing songs no one knows? Not to mention the physical problems for the players. 15 minute half times were adopted because it was determined to be the peak amount of cooling between periods by physicians for extreme physical activity. And article on the peak performance website addresses this particular issue. (http://www.pponline.co.uk/encyc/half-time-sport-should-you-warm-or-cool-down-41287)

My fourth point speaks to the way in which teams are assembled in the National Football League. Due to the extreme shortness of the season (16 games) compared to other sports; baseball, basketball and hockey, each game has significantly more impact on a season outcome proportionate to the number of games played. What does this matter you ask? The NFL schedule is set up so that you play each team in your division twice a season. You also play at least one team from each other division (North, South, East, West) in your conference (AFC or NFC). This limits you to play only 4 teams (one entire division) in the other conference. So what does this all mean? 38% of your games are inter-divisional and 75% of your games are played in your Conference. Franchises are forces to draft and acquire (Free agents and trading) players who fit the dynamic of their division first and their conference second. You can’t win a championship without winning your conference, and you can’t win your conference without making the playoffs, and you can’t make the playoffs without being very successful in your division (2-4 Philadelphia Eagles of 2008). In fact, only 4 teams I the last 20 seasons have had less than a .500 record in their division and made the playoffs (http://www.nfl.com/standings). That is 4 out of 120 or about 3%. You just can’t develop a team to compete on a league wide scale. You have to focus on your division to even have a shot to make the playoffs. And making the playoffs is usually the difference between a good and bad seasons, a job or unemployment. You see teams do this all the time. The AFC West is a good example of this trend. Since San Diego had so much success running the 3-4 defense and getting better at quarterback pressure, each team (Kansas City, Oakland, and Denver) have all fallen in line. You can see the how it has the effected their draft over the last few years with KC drafting big meaty 3-4 D linemen and Oakland getting a more mobile quarterback. Maybe these seem unrelated, but go check out your team for yourself. You will see the connection between division, style of play, and player and coach pick ups. How does this relate to the Super Bowl? Teams across conference divides just aren’t built to play each other.

These are just a few reasons why I can’t put much weight on the Super Bowl. Yeah, its fun. I love it as much as the next guy, but to me, it doesn’t tell me who the best team is or who is deserving of the championship. Sorry to burst your bubble.

By: Matthew S. Walden

Its Just the Jets

As the playoffs continue, I find myself reminiscing about great games and improbable champions of past. I don’t have to thank too hard. I remember the Arizona Cardinals transformation of last year from an undeserving playoff team who won an embarrassing division, to a juggernaut one play away from a Super Bowl victory (James Harrison’s TD run back before half time). I think of the New York Giants killing the immortal New England Patriots in 08 with an historical catch by an infamous David Tyree. And of course there were the forgotten legends like Peyton Manning, He and his Indianapolis Colts solidifying Peyton’s place in history with an unexpected title run in 07 after much doubt he could get it done in the post season. There were the great players and remarkable stories like Jerome Bettis finally getting his in his home town of Detroit (06), and Steve Young removing the stigma of Joe Montanan’s legacy (95). There were amazing performances such as Larry Fitzgerald during the entirety of last year’s playoffs, and Frank Reich for the bills in 92. All of these great memories make me look to this year’s class to find heroic efforts, great teams, amazing plays and more amazing players…But as I ponder, I find myself at a loss for those things. I can’t see to find any of that here in the 2009 NFL playoffs. Wait, you say who? The Jets?...Maybe the least memorable ever, I agree. The New York Jet!. But do you know why? It is how they have done it that is so important. It is not flashy play, or new found team ability. It isn’t players who have emerged or new schemes. It’s not the great old vets or new blood rookies. It isn’t even great defense or offense. They are not even in the top 5 of any major post season stats (http://www.nfl.com/stats/team for details). No, it’s is because of the the most underrated factor for successful teams. Constancy! The Jets have the highest turnover margin at a +3, they have an amazing 90 percent 3rd down conversation rate, they lead the post season in time of possession, and haven’t let a play go over 32 yards (not a TD). That’s right. No 200 yard rushers, 4 touchdown passing, 12 reception games to show on ESPN.com (http://espn.go.com/), just disciplined football. I just though since Sports Illustrated (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/) wasn’t going to talk about it, someone should. Consstancy can win chanmpionships too.

By: Matthew Walden, Jan 19, 2010

If you are reading this, then I am going to assume that you are a “REAL FOOTBALL FAN”. Meaning what? This is not a site for Sunday afternoon football watcher. This isn’t for the fans that love their team and can’t name any player other than quarterback and running back. Thanks Dallas fans! This is not a site to see pictures of Tom Brady and his new girl friend. Thank you Sports Illustrated! This is not a blog dedicated to irrelevant stats like how many touchdowns Peyton Manning threw during leap years against opponents with two parking lots for their stadium. Thank you ESPN! I am not here to discuss how a screen pass thrown in the flat that went for an eighty yard touchdown was all Drew Breeze’s doing. Thanks John Madden! I am not here to tell you that Sam Bradford is the best pick in the draft. Thank you obvious bloggers! I am here to give you real football knowledge. I am here to talk about what really matters to your teams. I am here to discuss the loss of the salary cap and what effect it is going to have on the NFL. I am here to tell you where your teams can pick up some great talent in the draft that won’t have jerseys made for them by the end of April. I want to give you real quantitative statistical analysis of players and teams. I want you to be able to dominate the Monday morning cooler. And more than anything, I want you to understand what the cover two is. I am amazed at how many “Real Football Fans” have no idea.

"Real Football Fan"

If you are reading this, then I am going to assume that you are a “REAL FOOTBALL FAN”. Meaning what? This is not a site for Sunday afternoon football watcher. This isn’t for the fans that love their team and can’t name any player other than quarterback and running back. Thanks Dallas fans! This is not a site to see pictures of Tom Brady and his new girl friend. Thank you Sports Illustrated! This is not a blog dedicated to irrelevant stats like how many touchdowns Peyton Manning threw during leap years against opponents with two parking lots for their stadium. Thank you ESPN! I am not here to discuss how a screen pass thrown in the flat that went for an eighty yard touchdown was all Drew Breeze’s doing. Thanks John Madden! I am not here to tell you that Sam Bradford is the best pick in the draft. Thank you obvious bloggers! I am here to give you real football knowledge. I am here to talk about what really matters to your teams. I am here to discuss the loss of the salary cap and what effect it is going to have on the NFL. I am here to tell you where your teams can pick up some great talent in the draft that won’t have jerseys made for them by the end of April. I want to give you real quantitative statistical analysis of players and teams. I want you to be able to dominate the Monday morning cooler. And more than anything, I want you to understand what the cover two is. I am amazed at how many “Real Football Fans” have no idea.